Ceará’s lobster exports: an approach by autoregressive vectors – VAR

Authors

  • Luis Abel da Silva Filho Regional University of Cariri – URCA, Brazil
  • Cosmo Renan da Silva Souza Regional University of Cariri – URCA, Brazil
  • Edcleutson de Souza Silva University of Paraíba – UFPB, Brazil
  • Yuri César de Lima e Silva Federal University of Roraima – UFRR, Brazil

Keywords:

Exports, Ceará, fish, lobsters

Abstract

Animal protein consumption has been growing worldwide with the advancement of globalization in trade, and it is sensitive to exchange rate changes and domestic product prices. Brazil stands out as one of the world's largest exporters of protein commodities, and Ceará is one of Brazil's largest fish exporters. Therefore, this study aims to analyze how exchange rate changes and changes in lobster prices affect the volume of lobster exported by the State of Ceará (the largest lobster exporter in the country). The selected period covers 2002 to 2022, and the analysis will be conducted using the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) approach. The results show that there is no long-term relationship between the variables and that the dynamics of lobster exports from Ceará can be explained much more by factors inherent and subjective to the supply and demand for the product rather than by macroeconomic variables commonly used in studies of this nature.

Author Biographies

Luis Abel da Silva Filho, Regional University of Cariri – URCA, Brazil

Professor at the Department of Economics at the Regional University of Cariri – URCA. Researcher at the Directorate of Regional, Urban, and Environmental Studies – DIRUR of the Institute of Applied Economic Research – IPEA.

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7453-1678

luis.abel@urca.br

Cosmo Renan da Silva Souza, Regional University of Cariri – URCA, Brazil

Undergraduate in Economics at the Regional University of Cariri – URCA.

https://orcid.org/0009-0000-8234-8331

cosmorenanrl@gmail.com

Edcleutson de Souza Silva, University of Paraíba – UFPB, Brazil

PhD candidate in Economics at the Federal University of Paraíba – UFPB

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3193-8520

edcleutsonsouza@gmail.com

Yuri César de Lima e Silva, Federal University of Roraima – UFRR, Brazil

Professor at the Department of Economics at the Federal University of Roraima – UFRR
Planning and Budget Analyst at the Planning and Budget Secretariat of Roraima

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2110-6256

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Published

2025-07-02

Issue

No. 35 (2025): N° 35: JAN-JUN 2025

Section

Science article

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