Impacto económico a longo prazo dos furacões Ivan e Dean na Jamaica
Palavras-chave:
crescimento económico, desastres naturais, controle sintéticoResumo
A Jamaica apresentou um crescimento econômico muito lento durante as últimas três décadas, com disrupções nos anos 2004 e 2007 quando a ilha foi impactada pelos furacões Ivan e Dean respectivamente. Este trabalho de investigação estima o efeito a longo prazo de ambos os furacões no PIB per capita da Jamaica mediante o método de controle sintético proposto por Abadie et al. (2010). A partir do painel de dados de variáveis preditoras dos países do pool de doadores foram construídas as trajetórias sintéticas do crescimento econômico da ilha para os períodos anteriores aos eventos: (1994-2004) e (1994-2007), para os furacões Ivan e Dean, respectivamente. Conseguindo, em ambos os casos, sobrepor as trajetórias do PIB per capita da Jamaica real com seus contrafactuais sintéticos. Neste sentido, estimou-se que nos dez anos seguintes ao evento houve uma diminuição do PIB per capita média de US$ 737 e 1 403 para os furacões Ivan e Dean, respectivamente. E, ao convergir ambos os efeitos, obtém-se um efeito negativo médio de US$ 2 140 durante o período de 2007 -2017. Com este estudo se contribui à evidência empírica de que os desastres naturais têm efeitos negativos e persistentes no crescimento econômico da Jamaica, já que este no intervalo de tempo analisado não conseguiu recuperar o nível de crescimento que tinha antes dos eventos.
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