Medición de impacto financiero del Covid 19 en el sistema integrado de transporte público de Barranquilla (Transmetro)
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Transmetro, SITP, COVID-19, pronóstico, demanda, tarifa diferencialResumo
Este artículo presenta un análisis del impacto financiero generado con ocasión de la pandemia por COVID-19 sobre el Sistema Integrado de Transporte Público de Barranquilla (TRANSMETRO S.A.S.) en 2020. A partir de un estudio de la demanda y de los costos, se analizaron, modelaron y proyectaron las variables del sistema a través de métodos de series temporales, obteniendo un escenario hipotético bajo el supuesto de ausencia de la emergencia sanitaria. Este fue contrastado con los datos reales generados durante la emergencia. Los hallazgos evidencian, en general, un comportamiento estacional con una tendencia creciente de los ingresos. No obstante, el crecimiento aún más elevado de los costos implica que el sistema ha operado generando pérdidas desde sus inicios. Las pérdidas anuales, a su vez, mostraron una tendencia decreciente hasta la irrupción de la pandemia, a partir de la cual se generó una importante reversión de las finanzas, ubicando los ingresos de la empresa en un escenario similar al de sus inicios y un estancamiento operacional.
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ARTICULO ELABORADO POR YUSEFF HENRIQUEZ Y ESTEFANO GONZALEZ
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