Os Impactos do Sentimento do Mercado de Petróleo nas Variáveis Macroeconômicas: Uma Análise por Vetores Autorregressivos em Painel
Palavras-chave:
mercado de petróleo, análise de sentimentos, OPEP, VAR painel, impulso-respostaResumo
Nos últimos anos, as decisões da OPEP sobre a produção do petróleo têm causado mudanças no preço da commodity e, consequentemente, afetado as variáveis macroeconômicas dos países. Assim, o objetivo do artigo é construir um índice de sentimento do mercado de petróleo a partir dos relatórios mensais da OPEP e verificar os seus efeitos nas variáveis macroeconômicas nos países exportadores e importadores de petróleo. Para o cálculo da polaridade, utilizou-se um dicionário específico para textos econômicos e financeiros. Após a construção do índice, estimou-se um modelo VAR Painel. Os principais resultados mostraram que aumentos no sentimento do mercado de petróleo, ou seja, mais otimismo no mercado da commodity é capaz de elevar o produto da economia, reduzir a taxa de juros de curto prazo e elevar a taxa de inflação. Além disso, mais otimismo no mercado ocasiona preços menores do petróleo. Por fim, os resultados também ilustram que, apesar do efeito significativo do índice de sentimento sobre as variáveis do modelo, essa magnitude é inferior em relação aos choques do preço do petróleo.
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