Política Tributária e Informalidade na Economia Brasileira
Palavras-chave:
economia informal, equilíbrio geral dinâmico, tributaçãoResumo
A pandemia de COVID-19 evidenciou a dimensão da informalidade na economia brasileira. Fatores como desemprego, contratação sem vínculo formal e elevada carga tributária são amplamente documentados na literatura como determinantes desse
fenômeno. No entanto, os impactos específicos das mudanças tributárias sobre a informalidade ainda carecem de investigação mais aprofundada. Assim, este estudo tem como objetivo analisar os efeitos de experimentos fiscais sobre a informalidade no Brasil,
utilizando um modelo de equilíbrio geral dinâmico. Os resultados demonstram que aumentos nas alíquotas tributárias incentivam a informalidade em diferentes dimensões – consumo, produção e trabalho –, gerando consequências negativas para a arrecadação tributária e ampliando os níveis de evasão fiscal.
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