Dinámica de los precios de los productos lácteos en Colombia : El caso del Departamento de Córdoba
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elasticidad de transmisión del precio, estacionalidad, cointegración , choques no esperadosResumo
Utilizando técnicas estadísticas y econométricas, como la media móvil multiplicativa, cointegración y funciones de impulso –respuesta, en este trabajo se analiza las relaciones de largo y corto plazo entre el precio al productor de leche y del queso costeño a nivel mayorista en Córdoba, Colombia. Se evidencia una fuerte estacionalidad: los precios se elevan entre Noviembre-Abril, y descienden entre Mayo-Octubre. La elasticidad de transmisión de largo plazo indica que un aumento del 1% en el precio al productor de leche aumenta el precio del queso a nivel mayorista en 0,69%. Un shock inesperado en estos mercados genera inestabilidad y una trayectoria contracíclica del precio. Los resultados obtenidos son plausibles; el comportamiento contracíclico confirma el papel amortiguador de la producción de queso para evitar caídas o subidas más drásticas del precio al productor de leche en épocas críticas.
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