Estimación de la tasa de cambio real de equilibrio: Aplicación a Colombia
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Tasa de cambio real, Colombia, equilibrioResumo
El objetivo de este trabajo es reunir evidencia empírica para discernir el impacto de la tasa de cambio real sobre la economía colombiana durante el período 1990-2002. El problema a la hora de encontrar este impacto consiste en la estimación de la tasa de cambio real de equilibrio, aquella que es consistente con la obtención simultánea de los equilibrios externo e interno. En este sentido, para lograr este cometido se recurre al enfoque desarrollado por Edwards (1988). Este modelo identifica un conjunto de variables exógenas fundamentales que determinan los mencionados equilibrios. A partir de aquí se construye un modelo de forma reducida para Colombia que relaciona la tasa de cambio real con algunas de las variables propuestas en el modelo. Finalmente, se explica que la tasa de cambio real se aprecia con shocks positivos de la tasa de interés real y se deprecia con el alto servicio de la deuda, términos de intercambio volátiles, y la variable de formación bruta de capital.
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