El homicidio en Barranquilla: una lectura espacial
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Violencia, análisis espacial, BarranquillaResumo
Este trabajo presenta una aproximación de corte geográfico y estadístico a la problemática del homicidio en la ciudad de Barranquilla. El estudio se concentra en los patrones espaciales de difusión del fenómeno, asimismo en un análisis que correlaciona la presencia de la fuerza pública en la ciudad, medida por la cantidad de Comandos de Atención Inmediata (CAI) de la Policía por barrio, con la tasa de homicidio para el período 2002-2008, así como con una variable espacial de control relacionada con las zonas que alcanzaron mayores tasas que el promedio de la ciudad. El análisis econométrico confirma que la presencia de la fuerza pública reduce la probabilidad de que cada barrio considerado individualmente tenga mayores tasas de homicidio; de igual maneraevidencia el carácter marginalmente decreciente de dicha relación y que el homicidio relacionado con atraco es la modalidad que más se ve afectada por dicha variable. Los resultados alcanzados permiten simular escenarios de intervención que optimicen la presencia de la fuerza pública, asumiendo mínimoscostos.
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