Conflicto armado, paz y economía
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Conflicto armado interno, estudios de paz, desarrollo económico, posconflicto, modelos probitResumo
En este artículo estamos interesados en investigar los determinantes económicos subyacentes en el mantenimiento de la paz en el posconflicto. Para logar el objetivo se selecciona una muestra de países que después de atravesar por conflictos armados internos han logrado alcanzar la paz. La extensa cantidad de variables socioeconómicas disponibles en las bases de datos analizadas hace necesario utilizar una metodología de análisis de componentes principales para elegir aquellas con mayor poder explicativo. En adición, se construye un modelo probabilístico para determinar cuáles variables tienen una mayor probabilidad de sostener la paz. La evidencia sugiere que entre los factores más relevantes que incrementan la probabilidad de una paz duradera son: la ayuda internacional, el capital físico, la infraestructura, la tecnología, las condiciones macroeconómicas y el valor agregado de la producción nacional.
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