Sobre la dinámica de la Pobreza en Colombia, 2002-2012
Palavras-chave:
descomposición sectorial, pobreza, desempleo, desigualdad, crecimiento pro-pobreResumo
En este trabajo estamos interesados en analizar la dinámica de la pobreza en Colombia durante el período 2002-2012. Nos interesa saber en qué medida la composición sectorial y geográfica de la producción, el gasto público social, la tasa de desempleo y distribución de los ingresos afecta la pobreza. La estrategia empírica parte de construir un panel de datos con efecto fijo por departamento, el cual relaciona diferentes medidas de pobreza con el crecimiento económico, medido a través del PIB desagregado por sectores -primario, secundario y terciario-, para luego contrastar la hipótesis del patrón de crecimiento económico. Los resultados sugieren que el crecimiento sectorial y la geografía son importantes en determinar el nivel de pobreza; además, se verifica que el desempleo y la desigualdad incrementan la pobreza, pero que el gasto social en el largo plazo puede reducirlas.
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