Líneas de Pobreza en el Cauca: Una Medición Subvalorada
Palavras-chave:
Líneas de Pobreza, Sistema Lineal de Gasto, Modelos de Ecuaciones Simultaneas, MicroeconometríaResumo
Este documento tiene por objetivo estimar líneas de pobreza para el departamento del Cauca y compararlas con las cifras oficialmente establecidas a través de una metodología microeconométrica novedosa. Se parte de un conjunto de ecuaciones de demanda basándose en el Sistema Lineal de Gasto (LES) y después se estiman los umbrales de pobreza a través de un conjunto de modelos econométricos en dos escenarios: conociendo los gastos mínimos en alimentos y suponiendo los gastos mínimos de ahorro. Despues de resolver problemas de identificación, endogeneidad y sesgos muestrales, los resultados evidencian que efectivamente los umbrales de pobreza para el Cauca, independientemente de la modelación escogida, siempre están subvalorados por los datos oficiales, lo que distorsiona la política social y económica para ayudar a menguar el problema en este departamento.
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