How much will be gained and how much will be lost with this policy? The importance of examining asymmetry of results
Keywords:
evidence-based policy, horizontal and vertical search, asymmetry of results, uncertainty, policymakingAbstract
Cartwright and Hardie (2012) claim that for a policy to work here two types of searches must be carried out: one concerning the causal principle or policy variable (vertical search) and the other concerning the factors that support such principle (horizontal search). However, they leave aside the fact that, during the implementation, a policy may deviate from its expected course. In the best of cases, these deviations make the policy to end up failing. But in other situations, such deviations may have highly damaging effects. In the present paper it is argued that, at least in the socioeconomic realm, these deviations may be more common than thought. As a consequence, it is argued that a policy maker should examine the degree of asymmetry of results –that is, how much would be gained and how much would be lost if the policy were implemented. It will be shown that, insofar as this asymmetry is more pronounced, the horizontal and vertical search becomes less relevant for a policy maker's decision.
References
Amin, A. and J. Hausner (1997). Beyond market and hierarchy: interactive governance and social complexity. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. Retrieved from: https://www.e-elgar.com/shop/gbp/beyond-market-and-hierarchy-9781858984827.html.
Archer, M. (2009). Realist social theory: the morphogenetic approach. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511557675.
Archer, M., R. Bhaskar, A. Collier et al. (1998). Critical realism: essential readings. London: Routledge. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315008592
Bunge, M. (1997). Mechanism and explanation. Philosophy of the Social Sciences, 27(4), 410–465. DOI: 10.1177/004839319702700402
Campbell, D. and M. Russo (1999). Social experimentation. Sage Classics 1. Thousand Oaks: Sage Publications. Retrieved from https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/social-experimentation/book8791
Cartwright, N. (1995). Ceteris Paribus Laws and Socio-Economic Machines. Monist, 78, (3), 276-294. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5840/monist19957831
Cartwright, N. (1999). The Dappled World. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139167093
Cartwright, N. (2012). Presidential address: will this policy work for you? Predicting effectiveness better: how philosophy helps. Philosophy of Science, 79(5), 973-989. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1086/668041
Cartwright, N. and Hardie, J. (2012). Evidence-Based Policy. A Practical Guide to Doing It Better. Oxford University Press. DOI: 10.1093/acprof:osobl/9780199841608.001.0001
Crotty, M. (1998). The foundations of social research: meaning and perspective in the research process. London: Sage Publications. Retrieved from: https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/the-foundations-of-social-research/book207972
Dunsire, A. (1986). A cybernetic view of guidance, control and evaluation in the public sector, in F.-X. Kaufmann, G. Majone, V. Ostrom and W. Wirth (eds), Guidance, control and evaluation in the public sector. Berlin: Walter de Gruyter. Retrieved from: https://pub.uni-bielefeld.de/record/2449792
Glennan, S. (2002). Rethinking Mechanistic Explanation. Philosophy of Science, 69, 342-S353. DOI: 10.1086/341857
Glennan, S. (2008). Mechanisms. In S. Psillos y M. Curd (eds.), The Routledge Companion to Philosophy of Science. Abingdon: Routledge, pp. 376-384. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203744857
Guba, E. and Y. Lincoln (1989). Fourth generation evaluation. Newbury Park: Sage. Retrieved from: https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/fourth-generation-evaluation/book2748
Keynes, J. (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. London: Macmillan. Retrieved from: https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/125515/1366_KeynesTheoryofEmployment.pdf
Kirk, R. (1999). Relativism and reality: a contemporary introduction. London: Routledge. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203003794
Mackie, J. (1965). Causes and Conditions. American Philosophical Quarterly, 2(4), 245–264. Retrieved from: https://www.jstor.org/stable/20009173
Mulgan, G. (1998). Connexity: responsibility, freedom, business and power in the new century. London: Vintage. Retrieved from: https://scholar.google.co.uk/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0,5&cluster=10491085284302377224
Nutley, S. and J. Webb (2000). Evidence and the policy process, in H.T.O. Davies, S.M. Nutley and P. Smith (eds), What works? Evidence-based policy and practice in public services. Bristol: Policy Press. Retrieved from: https://www.bums.ac.ir/dorsapax/filemanager/userfiles/sub_41/22244.pdf
Pawson, R. and Tilley, N. (1997). Realistic evaluation, London: Sage Publications. Retrieved from: https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/realistic-evaluation/book205276
Rescher, N. (1998). Complexity: a philosophical overview. New Brunswick: Transaction Publishers. https://www.routledge.com/Complexity-A-Philosophical-Overview/Rescher/p/book/9781138508378
Rodrik, D. (2007). One Economics, Many Recipes: Globalization, Institutions and Economic Growth. New Jersey: Princeton University Press. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvcm4jbh
Searle, J. (1995). The construction of social reality. London: Penguin Books. DOI: 10.1086/233794
Trigg, R. (2001). Understanding social science: a philosophical introduction to the social sciences, 2nd ed. Oxford: Blackwell. Retrieved from: https://www.wiley.com/en-ar/Understanding+Social+Science%3A+Philosophical+Introduction+to+the+Social+Sciences%2C+2nd+Edition-p-9780631218715
Sanderson, I. (2002). Evaluation, Policy Learning and Evidence-Based Policy Making. Public Administration, 80(1), 1–22. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9299.00292
Schwandt, T. (1997). Evaluation as practical hermeneutics. Evaluation, 3(1), 69–83. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/135638909700300105.
Taleb, N. (2012). Antifragile: things that gain from disorder. New York: Random House. Retrieved from: http://en.kgt.bme.hu/files//BMEGT30M400/Taleb_Antifragile__2012.pdf
Chick, V. and S. Dow (2005). The meaning of open systems. Journal of Economic Methodology, 12(3), 363-381, DOI: 10.1080/13501780500223585
Published
Issue
Section
License
I, ____________________________________________, author of the work and/ or article, adult, residing in the city of _________________, bearing the Identity Card/Passport n.° ______________________, issued in _______________________, in command of his/her/their physical and mental faculties, party hereinafter referred to as AUTHOR, signs the following authorization so the reproduction, publication, communication and distribution of the work can be done, under the following terms:
1. That, regardless of existing legal regulations due to the relationship of the parties to this contract, and any other existing legal presumption, the parties agree that the AUTHOR authorizes the Universidad del Norte, with the purpose of reproduce, publish, communicate and distribute the material called in the Revista de Economía del Caribe.
2. That such authorization apply to the copyright of the work, by any means, known or to be known, the public communication of the work, and the distribution of the work, directly or by third parties, purely educational purposes.
3. The AUTHOR undertakes to inform and declare the existence of this authorization and to preserve the right of the journal Revista de Economía del Caribe to the first publication of the work.
4. The AUTHOR states that the article is original and his/her/their exclusive creation, there being no impediment of any kind for the authorization he/she/they is/are giving, responding thereto by any action: claim, plagiarism or any other type of complaint that might arise about.
5. That such authorization is granted for free.
6. The moral rights of the author on the article correspond exclusively to the AUTHOR, in virtue of which, the Universidad del Norte agrees to expressly and rigorously recognize and respect them.
