Quanto se ganhará e quanto se perderá com esta política? A importância de examinar a assimetria dos resultados
Palavras-chave:
política baseada em evidências, pesquisa horizontal e vertical, assimetria de resultados, incerteza, formulação de políticasResumo
Cartwright e Hardie (2012) afirmam que, para que uma política funcione aqui, dois tipos de buscas devem ser realizados: uma relacionada ao princípio causal ou variável política (busca vertical) e outra relacionada aos fatores que sustentam tal princípio (busca horizontal). pesquisa). . No entanto, os autores omitem o fato de que, durante a implementação, uma política pode se desviar do curso esperado. Na melhor das hipóteses, esses desvios fazem com que a política falhe. Mas em outras situações, tais desvios podem ter efeitos altamente prejudiciais. Este artigo argumenta que, pelo menos no campo socioeconômico, esses desvios podem ser mais comuns do que se pensa. Como consequência, argumenta-se que o formulador de políticas deve examinar o grau de assimetria dos resultados, ou seja, quanto ganharia e quanto perderia se a política fosse implementada. Será demonstrado que, na medida em que essa assimetria é mais acentuada, a busca horizontal e vertical torna-se menos relevante para a decisão de um policy maker.
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