Does population aging influence Brazilian economic growth?

Authors

  • Mathias Schneid Tessmann Brazilian Institute of Education, Development and Research - IDP, Brazil https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9320-0340
  • Elaine Cristina da Silva Vasconcelos Brazilian Institute of Education, Development and Research - IDP, Brazil
  • Gustavo José de Guimarães Souza Brazilian Institute of Education, Development and Research - IDP

Keywords:

Population Aging, Economic Growth, Solow Model, VECM

Abstract

This paper empirically tests the relationship between productivity and the aging of the Brazilian population from 2012 to 2022, using quarterly data from IBGE and PNAD Contínua. The study follows a Solow-augmented model with the dependency ratio incorporated and employs Johansen cointegration and VECM methods. Results show that population aging exerts a positive and statistically significant effect on economic growth, while the savings rate has a negative long-term effect on per capita income. These findings contrast with much of the international literature, highlighting specific demographic and institutional features of Brazil. The results have policy implications for pension reform, labor participation of older adults, and active aging strategies.

Author Biographies

  • Mathias Schneid Tessmann, Brazilian Institute of Education, Development and Research - IDP, Brazil

    Coordinator, professor and researcher of the IDP, PhD in Business Economics from the Catholic University of Brasilia, master’s degree in Applied Economics from the UFPel, specialist with an MBA in Business Intelligence from the ULBRA and a degree in Economics from the UFPel.

  • Elaine Cristina da Silva Vasconcelos, Brazilian Institute of Education, Development and Research - IDP, Brazil

    Professor of the IDP, Master in Economics by the IDP, postgraduate degree in Financial Business by the University of Brasilia (UnB), postgraduate degree in BI, Big Data, Analytics (Data Science) by the Anhanguera Uniderp University and graduate in Economic Sciences by the UNEB. She also works as an Advisor in the Risk Management Department of Banco do Brasil, with experience in market risks, models and liquidity, and having worked in the areas of stress testing and organizational culture at Diris.

  • Gustavo José de Guimarães Souza, Brazilian Institute of Education, Development and Research - IDP

    Professor at IDP, PhD in Economics from the University of Brasília (UnB), Master's in Economics from UFF, and a Bachelor's degree in Economics from UFJF. She is also an analyst at the Central Bank of Brazil and currently serves as the Executive Secretary of the Ministry of Planning and Budget of the Federal Government of Brazil.

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Published

2025-12-30

Issue

No. 36 (2025): N° 36: JUL-DEC 2025

Section

Science article

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