Climatic and macroeconomic factors associated with the price of criolla potato in Bogotá: an analysis using time-lagged models

Authors

  • Néstor Cordero Sáenz Universidad de La Salle, Colombia
  • Wilson Vergara Vergara Universidad de la Salle, Colombia
  • Jahir Rodríguez Riveros Minuto de Dios University Corporation, Colombia

Keywords:

TRM, Solanum phureja, econometric models, climate, agricultural prices

Abstract

This study analyzes the relationship between climatic and macroeconomic variables and the price of Solanum phureja (criolla potato) in Bogotá, Colombia, during the 2014–2023 period. Time-lagged econometric models of up to six months, Pearson correlation coefficients, and multiple regression analyses were applied. Results show that the Representative Market Rate (TRM) and extreme climatic phenomena (El Niño/La Niña) are the main determinants of price dynamics, while rainfall and fertilizer prices exhibited no statistical significance. The findings provide empirical evidence on the drivers of price volatility in the criolla potato market and offer practical insights for risk management and policy design in the agricultural sector, particularly under the increasing influence of climatic and economic uncertainty.

Time-lagged regression models (up to six months), Pearson correlation coefficients, and multiple regression analysis were applied to identify significant associations. Results show that the TRM is the most influential variable, followed by climatic anomalies and oil prices. Conversely, precipitation and urea prices were not statistically significant, possibly due to limitations in data representativeness.

The findings provide empirical insights into decision-makers in the agricultural sector, supporting more informed risk management strategies and policy development in the context of increasing price volatility in food markets.

Author Biographies

  • Néstor Cordero Sáenz, Universidad de La Salle, Colombia

    Industrial Engineer, Master in Agribusiness, and Ph.D. candidate in Business Administration. Research Professor at Universidad de la Salle. Consultant for the Rural Observatory of La Salle and professor in undergraduate and graduate programs of Business Intelligence, Data Analytics, and Operations Research for rural areas.

  • Wilson Vergara Vergara, Universidad de la Salle, Colombia

    Zootechnician, Master in Economic Sciences, Doctor in Agricultural Sciences. Research professor at Universidad de La Salle. Consultant for the Rural Observatory of Universidad de La Salle. Undergraduate and graduate professor in the areas of Agrarian Policy, Rural Development, Agricultural Economics, and Project Evaluation. External consultant in the evaluation of environmental and agricultural goods.

  • Jahir Rodríguez Riveros, Minuto de Dios University Corporation, Colombia

    Industrial Engineer, Master in Analytical Intelligence for Decision Making. Currently works as a university professor in the areas of Operations Research, Artificial Intelligence and Simulation at the Minuto de Dios University Corporation.

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Published

2025-12-30

Issue

No. 36 (2025): N° 36: JUL-DEC 2025

Section

Science article

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