Pronóstico y análisis de la confiabilidad de una central hidroeléctrica en Colombia implementando una tasa de fallas móvil en el tiempo

Ángel Ríos Velásquez; Brayan Steven Mancipe Barrero; Juan Guillermo García Navarro; Mario Alonso Jaramillo Romero

doi:10.14482/inde.42.02.612.049

Authors

Ángel Ríos Velásquez Universidad Autónoma de Manizales https://orcid.org/0009-0007-7917-209X
Brayan Steven Mancipe Barrero Universidad Autonoma de Manizales https://orcid.org/0009-0007-8590-1957
Juan Guillermo García Navarro Universidad Autonoma de Manizales https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8540-3196
Mario Alonso Jaramillo Romero Central Hidroeléctrica de Caldas https://orcid.org/0009-0000-3076-0885

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.14482/inde.42.02.612.049

Keywords:

hydroelectric power plant, reliability, exponential distribution, moving average, MTBF

Abstract

Power generation in Colombia is strongly linked to hydroelectric power plants, which makes it crucial to optimize maintenance tasks to ensure maximum availability. For this reason, this work focuses on analyzing the reliability of a hydroelectric power plant in order to support decision-making in maintenance planning. The research is based on the historical data of the power plant, in which the reports that cause its unavailability are recorded. From this information, the mean time between failures (MTBF) of the equipment and its reliability was determined, as well as that of the two generating units that make up the power plant. Finally, a method based on the technical indicator EMA (exponential moving average) was applied to predict the reliability trend over time. The results obtained provided an assessment of the status of the hydroelectric power plant and made it possible to identify the critical equipment in terms of failures, to which resources should be allocated to strengthen the plant's availability.

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