Causas del desempleo en Colombia en el Siglo XXI. Evidencia a partir de un modelo VAR-X Cointegrado
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Desempleo, Colombia, VAR-X cointegrado, análisis de impulso respuesta, descomposición de varianzaResumo
La presente investigación estudia los posibles determinantes del desempleo en Colombia en el siglo XXI, mediante un modelo VAR-X Cointegrado. El análisis de cointegración evidencia estadísticamente una relación de largo plazo entre las variables: términos de intercambio, ventas reales, productividad laboral, empleo, salarios reales y desempleo. Al estimar el modelo y desarrollar el análisis de impulso respuesta, se concluye que las ventas reales son un factor importante para el desempleo en el corto plazo, como la productividad lo es en gran medida para el mediano y largo plazo. Este análisis se confirma con los resultados arrojados por la descomposición de varianza.
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