Stock returns, macroeconomic variables and expectations: Evidence from Brazil

Abstract

There is not general support to explain the correlation among the macroeconomic variables and share returns in different countries and time. The unique characteristics of the Brazilian economy have changed deeply over the last years, thus the purpose of this study is to explore the correlation among the macroeconomic variables and share returns in Brazil from 2000 to 2010. The study investigates the causality relationships among real stock returns, basic interest rates, GDP, inflation and the market expectation of future behavior of these macroeconomic variables. The method used to find the correlation among the variables studied was the Stepwise Multiple Regression. The results show that basic interest rates and GDP affect the stock returns, however inflation and market expectation of future behavior of these macroeconomic variables affect stock returns insignificantly.